September marks the end of a comparatively quiet Q3 in the Cayman Islands real estate market, with total sales of US$200 million through the CIREBA Multiple Listings System (MLS). While this is slightly lower than Q3 2023 (US$209 million), Q3 2022 (US$208 million), and Q3 2021 (US$230 million), it still outperforms all other previous Q3 sales in terms of transactional volume. Despite the drop in overall sales value, the total number of transactions increased to 176, compared to 149 in Q3 2023.
At first glance, the average value of each transaction appears to have fallen compared to Q3 2023. However, given the relatively small sample size and the ever-changing mix of properties sold through the MLS, we prefer to rely on our DOKHPI condo price index. This index eliminates statistical noise and shows a price increase in 2024. We maintain indexes for multiple neighbourhoods in Grand Cayman, all of which currently show condo price increases of 4–5% compared to 2023. While this is not the robust annual growth we’ve seen in prior years, the positive trend continues. The index adjusts as new sales data comes in, and we will release the full end-of-year price growth estimate in the 2024 annual update in the coming months.
The ratio of sales to new listings improved in comparison to Q3 of the previous year. A total of 345 new properties were advertised on CIREBA in July, August, and September 2024, an 11% decrease compared to 388 during the same period last year. Meanwhile, the volume of sales in Q3 2024 (176) marked an 18% increase over the 149 sales recorded in Q3 2023.
In total, US$262 million of CIREBA inventory was placed under contract in Q3 2024, representing about a 5% increase in dollar value compared to Q3 2023. Year-to-date sales volume for 2024 currently stands at US$743 million, keeping the market on track to exceed the record US$968 million volume observed in 2021 and potentially surpass the US$1 billion mark for the first time.
At the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the funds rate was lowered by 0.5%—the first reduction in five years—with indications of further cuts to follow. While it may take some time for this adjustment to impact the market, lower rates are generally a positive indicator for asset values, and the FOMC has signalled a clear direction for rates over the medium term. “The long-anticipated lowering of interest rates has arrived and brings relief for both first-time buyers and existing homeowners,” says Antonette Baptist, Provenance Properties sales specialist.
In our Q2 update, the DOKHPI price index initially showed a decline in prices due to the limited dataset available at the time. However, with additional sales data collected over the past three months, our revised index now indicates that condo prices are up 4–5% compared to last year. “Despite a quiet Q3 2024, sales volumes in the first nine months of the year are higher than any other Q1-Q3 period in the history of the MLS, and prices continue to climb,” says Ewelina Cimring, Provenance Properties real estate agent.
With the market distortion caused by population fluctuations during the COVID pandemic becoming a distant memory, it’s clear that the Cayman Islands is returning to a more seasonal rental market. Available inventory increases slightly over the summer as owners pull their apartments from short-term rental programs, and a corresponding drop in demand from on-island long-term renters leads to rental rates flattening and days on market increasing. We expect this trend to reverse in the coming weeks and months, following historical patterns, when available inventory—especially around Seven Mile Beach—begins to decrease. “Camana Bay offers a variety of rental options, from studios to three-bedroom apartments, just a short walk from Seven Mile Beach and with the amenities and convenience of the town centre,” says Shanice Ebanks, Provenance Properties sales specialist.
Our sales team’s exclusive access to Dart’s in-house data analysts allows us to provide up-to-date, accurate, and relevant information regarding the current sales index. This readily available market analysis enables Provenance Properties to stay ahead of industry trends and equip you with the knowledge to buy or sell with confidence. For more information on Q3 data and the latest price change estimates, contact our team today.
